Natural Disasters and the Electability of Women: Evidence from Philippine Mayoral Elections

Do natural disasters influence electoral outcomes, and does this effect vary by candidate gender? While retrospective voting theory suggests that voters can rationally assess leader performance during crises, it often overlooks how candidate identity may shape evaluations in ways that depart from competence-based logics under conditions of threat. I argue that natural disasters intensify the role of gender in electoral decision-making, activating latent biases that disadvantage female candidates. Using panel data from 1,632 Philippine municipalities (2001–2010), I analyze mayoral elections merged with a geospatial typhoon exposure index to examine how disaster severity affects three electoral outcomes: candidate entry, candidate electoral success, and incumbent vote share. I find no evidence that disasters increase the supply of female candidates. However, typhoon exposure significantly reduces win rates for female challengers and erodes vote shares for female incumbents under repeated shocks. These findings suggest that climate crises amplify the political salience of gender, distorting voter evaluations and reinforcing patterns of under-representation of women in political office.

Working Paper